It looks like the Pacific Northwest can comfortably gatekeep our pleasant, mild summer weather once again: despite exceptionally hot forecasts across most of the United States, Portland’s temperatures will likely stay relatively cool compared to last year, according to recent predictions by AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters.

The report predicts that Portland can expect to see fewer days over 90 degrees this summer—though that’s not exactly a difficult feat. Last year, July and August had seven days each that met the mark. August 2023 even holds the record for Portland’s hottest month ever, according to KOIN 6 meteorologist Kelley Bayern, with three days in a row topping 100 degrees. 

“​​It's pretty rare to see more than two days in a row” hit three digits before the ocean air reliably cools things down, says National Weather Service meteorologist Clinton Rockey—a five-day stretch in July 1941 holds that record.  Showers and thunderstorms will reduce the likelihood of prolonged scorchers this summer, according to the AccuWeather report. 

Rockey takes a more temperate tone. It’s too early to make a call on summer storm patterns, he says. But transitioning from El Niño to La Niña does tend to cool things down a bit. “I suspect what's going to happen is we're going to wind up seeing a fairly normal summer for the most part,” Rockey says. Maybe a bit drier than average, but “pleasantly warm,” with the usual hit-the-beach hot days sprinkled in.

But don’t shove the AC unit you bought in ’21 out the window just yet. With global temperatures ticking upward, heuristics like La Niña may be less reliable than expected. And there’s plenty of time for summer’s weather outlook to change. “Mother Nature always likes to pull the cards out and reshuffle them about halfway through the season,” Rockey says. “We’ll see what happens.”